The bulge of “baby boomer” kids applying to college has made it impossible to get into the top schools . . . I know this is true because I read about it in Newsweek.
This is a very tricky myth to address because it has received so much media hype during the past couple of years. It’s nonsense but it will take a bit of explanation to fully understand why. It’s one of those myths that contain just enough truth that if you twist the story just right . . . you can get an exciting magazine feature. It doesn’t make the myth true . . . but it does make it popular.
Okay, exactly what part of this myth is true? Well, there is a population bulge from all of you baby boomers having kids. In the admissions business it actually has a different name; it’s called a population “echo”. Now if I ask you exactly how significant the impact of this bulge, or echo, is at its peak . . . what would you guess? Do you think that all of those baby boomers having kids has increased the population of college age students by 27% . . . 58% . . . or a whopping 112%? Yeah, good guesses but the actual bulge in the population of college age students at its peak, the bulge you’ve read about in Newsweek and your local paper . . . is almost, 10%. That’s right, 10%. Heck, 10% isn’t even a very good sale at Target or Best Buy! Now, in the world of national statistics, that’s a pretty big bulge and does have some ramifications for society at a macro economic level. But at the level of a single student applying to college, it’s not particularly significant.
Let’s look at the impact of that number in the real world. Many of the top 25 colleges in America have traditionally had an acceptance rate of about 25%. An imaginary school with 100 applications would accept 25. Now they have 110 applications and they still take 25. Even the super selective colleges like Princeton or Yale or CalTech accept about 10% of their applications. 100 students would apply and they’d take 10. With the bulge 110 apply and they take 10. Does that feel like an enormous impact?
If the much advertised bulge making college acceptance impossible for your wonderful and qualified kid is a myth . . . then how has the story maintained what the media calls “legs” . . . why do people still believe it? The reason is because it is definitely more difficult to get into a top college today . . . but not primarily because of the baby boom echo.
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